Study: Falling Florida Home Prices Still Significantly Overvalued

Atlanta and Detroit are the nation’s two most overvalued housing markets, but Florida is the state where prices are well out of line with historical trends, according to a new report from researchers at Florida Atlantic University and Florida International University.

At the end of April, at No. 1, buyers in Atlanta paid a premium of 48.57 percent, while Detroit was second with a premium of 45.80 percent. A premium is the percentage above the area’s long-term pricing trend that buyers must pay.

But nine of the top 14 most overvalued U.S. markets were in the Sunshine State. In No. 3 Tampa, buyers paid a premium of 43.98 percent, followed by No. 4 North Port-Bradenton at 43.49 percent and No. 5 Cape Coral-Fort Myers at 43.35 percent.

Lakeland, Palm Bay, Jacksonville, Deltona, Orlando and Miami were the other overvalued Florida markets. The full rankings can be found here.

“Florida is so overvalued almost certainly because of the increased demand to live here combined with a shortage of available housing units,” said Ken H. Johnson, Ph.D., an economist in FAU’s College of Business. “There are just not enough roofs to go around, given our population and Florida’s stature as a prime destination.”

Each month, FAU and FIU rank the 100 most overvalued metro areas using publicly available data from online real estate portal Zillow or other providers. The data, which extends from January 1996 through the end of April, includes single-family homes, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops.

The latest data shows that while Florida remains significantly overvalued, prices in the state have fallen, just as they have across the country, the researchers noted.

But the drops in Florida, starting as early as August 2022, have been less than 5 percent. In other U.S. markets such as California, double-digit price declines are common.

Miami’s tri-county region is the only one of the nine measured Florida metros that has not witnessed a price decline. The average price in Miami at the end of April was a record high of $455,184.

Florida also is leading the way when it comes to profits for owners, according to the researchers, whose analysis included gross annual return from ownership.

Florida’s housing markets continue to provide significant returns to ownership ranging from 5.96 percent in Jacksonville to 7.40 percent in Miami. San Francisco and Los Angeles, for example, had returns of only 3.36 percent and 4.05 percent, respectively.

“With circumstances the way they are in Florida, I expect housing prices and rents will remain high, especially with local annual incomes not able to keep up,” said Eli Beracha, Ph.D., of FIU’s Hollo School of Real Estate.

William Hardin, Ph.D., dean of FIU’s College of Business, also is concerned about prices and rents in the Sunshine State.

“The housing crisis this time around won’t be nearly as severe as it was in the 2007-to-2010 range,” he said. “I’m expecting relatively stable price performance -- but at the expense of housing affordability for consumers.”

-FAU-